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Only 48 hours prior to the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange made a significant electoral prediction – not just who would win overall, but block by block. Lange, an expert in elections who grew up in the city, has spent more than ten years in left-leaning activism and emerged as something of a well-known figure recently for his thorough analyses into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He released his highly detailed prediction map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani would win although missing the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his newsletter, the Narrative War. Lange has a flair for witty coinages. He highlighted, for instance, the split between the “commie corridor”, running from Park Slope to Bushwick to Astoria, where he predicted (accurately) that Mamdani would win by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, certain media outlets and Wall Street Journal outrank the New York Times” in readership and the majority of electors favored Cuomo, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Trends and Surprises

What was your night?

It was necessary since they were adding approximately 200K ballots into the system frequently! I was actually a little nervous initially: Mamdani was ahead the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but came large groups of ballots added after that and the advantage went from 12 to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, there was a world where yesterday turned out kind of poorly for Mamdani, in which Cuomo would have essentially doubling his votes from the earlier contest. But Mamdani added half a million supporters to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He campaigned and massively expanded his base from the first round.

Coalition Building

Where did Mamdani gain additional support from?

He assembled the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: diverse racially, it’s young, tenants and it’s people facing cost pressures. He improved significantly with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the earlier election. Additionally he further maximized his core of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He created the alliance that progressives long aimed for: multiracial, youthful, renters and residents struggling with costs

There were also some Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It is a real thing, limited to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Muslims. Electors in immigrant strongholds that supported the former president previously backed the progressive now. However it’s not that he was winning over white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Turnout and Impact

One of the big stories of the night was the sky-high turnout. Who benefited?

Both sides. Participation was much greater than I had expected. I thought we might exceed two million, but it reached 2.3 million – that is a lot of darn voters. Existed a substantial anti-Mamdani block, energized, but his supporters was also motivated, and that was enough to secure victory.

You predicted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Currently you would say he’s likely to get over 50%. He has just over 50% but there’s still probably 200K ballots uncounted as of Wednesday morning. Thus I don’t think it’s definitive, but I believe probable, and I wish he achieves it so afterwards no one can say the Republican was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His vote completely collapsed.

He lost a single precinct in any borough. Including one neighborhood in the borough, which is like an 88% Trump area. That really surprised me. Cuomo held very white areas, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and plus gained all of these conservatives on the island who had a high participation. I believe occurred significant strategic balloting by GOP voters. This happened prior to Trump endorsed for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide if Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

What about your much mentioned left-wing base – did backing for the candidate overwhelming in those parts of the boroughs?

In my view there was some weakening of the commie corridor in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, instance, the Greek landlords and residents all went for the independent. So there existed some opposition. But overall, largely the commie corridor is another huge reason why Mamdani won – he was polling between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

Prior to the vote we reported on whether the candidate was gaining ground with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he succeeded?

There are neighborhoods with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. However in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Manhattan area, his position on Israel was influential in those places. Likewise in the moderate communities including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned the independent. And also, there are newcomers from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, who were pretty staunchly supportive. So I don’t know if there were crazy narrative-busters on this one, but he did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the another locale by big margins.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city means politically? Will commie corridor serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that key political leaders from the left hail from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that we’ll see more of that – people will emerge from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

But I believe that every city in America can have similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the epicenters of progressive influence in America – because they’re young, tenancy is common and they are places where people are crushed by the disparities exist.