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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions cover identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for Wider Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."