Day-to-Day Murders in Mexico Drop 37% In the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Government Data
The mean figure of everyday murders monthly in the country has dropped by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to new government figures. Nevertheless, public safety analysts have cautioned that homicide figures could fail to indicate better countrywide stability.
Notable Drop in Per-Day Numbers
Officials reported an mean of nearly 55 killings a day in November versus almost 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the leadership in the previous September. This announcement was delivered by the head of the nation's national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on Tuesday.
“The outcome in murders that we have seen in these past months is extremely important,” Sheinbaum stated, noting that in November the lowest figure of homicides were documented for any single November in the last decade.
Recent Background and Government Plan
Fierce drug cartel infighting, alongside the government’s highly military operations to confront the cartels, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers escalate in the past few years. The rate peaked at a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the country’s national statistics agency.
That resulted in Mexico a murder rate more than 4x greater than the US. Since then, murders have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has attributed her national security strategy for an seemingly more pronounced decline in killings this year.
At a press conference in the summer, the President declared: “There is a plan, we have monitoring of the strategy, and we have specific tracking municipality by municipality in certain cases. The plan functions. And we have to keep working at it daily.”
The main pillars of Sheinbaum’s security strategy involve:
- Strengthening Mexico’s national guard.
- Improving intelligence and investigation efforts.
- Greater coordination between various departments.
Analyst Warnings and Data Limitations
But, security analysts urged caution that relying on murder statistics to assess the situation of improved security was misleading. This is particularly true in light of the uptick in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances.
“That would be excellent information if this was a reduction, but I think we can’t just focus on the murder data and think: ‘Oh well, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican cartels. “I would be cautiously optimistic.”
According to the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total fell by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year versus the identical timeframe the previous year. Yet, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in some states have risen by as much as 200%.
“Data on homicides is no longer reliable for assessing the reality of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the capacity or the inclination to accurately identify and categorize bodies. Second, organized [criminals] … have the means to mask violent acts through abductions.”
Vargas pointed out that using month-to-month averages of everyday homicides was additionally problematic because it could obscure periods when there were especially elevated numbers of murders.
“Employing the daily average makes high peaks of violence less visible,” he concluded.
Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Progress
Where the administration can highlight the success of its safety plan is on arrests and seizures. Nearly 40,000 suspects were arrested between last October and this past November for major crimes, per government data. Over 20,000 weapons were seized and 311 tonnes of drugs seized.
“The former US president can't accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s very politically advantageous,” stated Vargas.
Ongoing Violence and Public Anger
However in spite of these measures, Mexico is still beset by extreme bloodshed, with several states in the grip of cartel-driven conflict. Last month there was a prominent murder of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the past year.
Weeks after, thousands of young people demonstrated in the capital and throughout the nation to show their frustration at corruption and narco-violence.
“The administration shares [data] in a way to create a narrative of security. From a political standpoint it’s extremely potent, from a social perspective it’s highly problematic,” Vargas concluded.