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Beijing has deployed its coast guard into the waters of the Diaoyu islands and military drones near remote Japanese territory as China escalates strains following the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its vessels carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Tokyo but also claimed by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the islands but the latest activity occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, the Japanese official, told parliament that if Beijing assaults the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Japan.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

China claims Taiwan as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “reunification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. Taiwan’s government and people categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would threaten to spiral into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the US and other allies including Japan, which has land just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Defense Operations

In Taiwan, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was likely the maritime patrol, active near the island over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs operating near the island and the Japan's territory off its north-east coast, seeming to travel particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said Beijing had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted the island had dispatched military assets to track the developments. The island reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from China since Takaichi made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Japan by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other nations, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards Taiwan.